Impacts of climate change on rainfall indices estimation in western sub-basins of Iran
محل انتشار: مجله تحقیقات منابع زیست محیطی، دوره: 7، شماره: 2
سال انتشار: 1398
نوع سند: مقاله ژورنالی
زبان: انگلیسی
مشاهده: 251
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شناسه ملی سند علمی:
JR_IJERR-7-2_002
تاریخ نمایه سازی: 24 تیر 1399
چکیده مقاله:
The purpose of this study was to document changes in indices simulated by the ensemble
application of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project CMIP5 and CMIP3 when
analyzing impacts of climate change on catchment rainfall indices in sub-basins of
Hamedan province, west of Iran. The analysis of the precipitation indices consisted of
simple rainfall intensity, very heavy rainfall days, maximum one-day rainfall, and rainfall
frequency. I investigated the relative change in three rainfall indices based on general
circulation models (GCMs) under a mixture of greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B and
B1, RCP8.5 and RCP8.5 for two future periods 2020–2045 and 2045-2065. Results showed
that each of the rainfall indices differed in stations under the three GCMs models (GIAOM,
MIHR, MPEH5) and emission scenarios A1B, B1, RCP2.5, and RCP8.5. Relative 50y
change for future periods 2046–2065 varied from -9.93% to 25% for daily intensity index,
from 20.71% to 25.9% for very heavy rainfall days and from -15.71% to 13% for annual
rainfall depth in the study area. Rainfall indices projection of sum of wet days, days>1mm,
and maximum one-day rainfall showed decrease under the scenarios B1 and A1B and also
sum of wet days, simple daily intensity, and heavy rainfall days>10 decreased under the
RCP2.6
کلیدواژه ها:
نویسندگان
H. Nazaripouya
Assistant Professor of Watershed Department, Hamedan Agricultural and NaturalResources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research, Education andExtension Organization, Hamedan, Iran