Risk assessment of information technology projects using Bayesian networks

Information technology (IT) is one of the fastest growing industries in developed countries. However, because of its inherent features, IT projects are processes with high risk as well as high uncertainty. To ensure a smooth operation of IT projects, the risk involved in the process needs to be assessed and the uncertainty should also be addressed properly. In this paper, critical risk factors in IT projects are analyzed. Thirty one risks were identified from expert interviews and a literature review. These risks have been divided into six categories, namely commercial and legal risks, economic and market risks, human risks, technical risks, management risks, and user risks. The mentioned risk factors are then modeled into a Bayesian network (BN) to facilitate the risk assessment of a real world IT project. Bayesian networks are probabilistic, graphical models to handle the uncertainty problem in complex systems. Furthermore, different scenarios have been applied on the model and risk change rate has been evaluated respectively.

کلیدواژه ها:

Project risk management ، Information technology ، Bayesian networks